Succeed like a Spitzenkandidat
Habemus papam? EU Council President Charles Michel compared the departure of German Chancellor Angela Merkel to the Vatican without a pope. Her successor will most likely not be a Christian Democrat but from the centre-left. Olaf Scholz is currently negotiating a “traffic light” coalition with the Greens and the liberal party. Red-yellow-green smoke may emanate before Christmas; until then, it is worth looking at what helped the three parties win this autumn.
With patience a ruler may be persuaded, Proverbs 25:15
Victories rarely result from a messiah appearing out of the blue. Angela Merkel ran for office four times. The last time, in 2017, every third German voted for her conservative party coalition (CDU/CSU) keeping her competitors at distance. 10 percentage points behind, the Social Democrats surprised with the nomination of Martin Schulz, a prominent, seasoned politician who had worked as a mayor at local level for over a decade as well as at European level for almost a quarter century. Media called him the SPD’s saviour at the beginning. At the end, the SPD suffered the worst result in German federal elections since WWII. The book “The Schulz Effect” describes how internal conflicts caused a red catastrophe.
Researchers from the University of Vienna took a closer look at the effects of party unity on voters. Their findings confirm that perceived as well as objective internal quarrels matter in European multiparty systems and abroad. A good example are the primaries in the USA, notably the contest between Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders. Put enough time aside to close your ranks.
The Greens and FDP aligned early for the 2021 elections. Well-coordinated teams started to meet at the “Lebensstern” bar already in 2017 to discuss positions and overcome disagreements. The polls indicated that Merkel’s successor would need to work with both parties, which is why they decided to prepare early. The goal of the regular meetings was not to merge but to build trust and avoid being played by one of the bigger parties. These talks intensified around the election and always took place in private, which is vital for win-win negotiations.
This blog post of the Harvard Law School explains why. Publicity turns negotiations into a competition where you have winners and losers. While this might work for one-off deals, such as selling an item to strangers, it rarely works in politics where long-term partnerships matter. Combine privacy, early preparation and patience if you want to persuade someone without making them lose their face.
Gracious words are a honeycomb, Proverbs 16:24
Social, environmental and economic issues dominated the German election campaign because these were on top of the voters’ minds. The parties presented their ideas for these complex topics on 100 - 200 pages. Few ordinary folk have time to read through manifestoes, which is why candidates need to be extraordinary communicators. This time, the German TV broadcasters challenged them even more.
Armin Laschet, Olaf Scholz and Annalena Baerbock were sent back to school. The candidates of the three parties leading in the polls had to spend a few hours in a classroom answering questions from children. Their task was to explain key concepts of their manifesto by sketching it on a whiteboard. How would you visualise conservatism, global minimum tax and climate neutrality?
Even sketching a simple object is not easy. If you tell someone to draw a table, their table will often look differently to what you have in mind . Visualisation, however, helps you align thoughts with organisers, team members and your audience. The next time a conference organisers ask you to paint a picture, take it literally, pick some icons and check whether people get what you mean.
You do not need to become Frida Kahlo. Every object or face consists of basic shapes, which Ed Emberly and other artists lay out in their visual alphabet. These could be dots, lines, triangles, arcs, waves, circles and squares. If you manage to draw these, try to dissect more complex items. For instance, a bow tie consists of one square in the centre, two triangles on the side and four lines. Paper craft for children follows the same principle. Eager readers can prepare workshops and presentations with the seven steps below.
Your commands give me delight, Psalm 119:143
Almost four out of 10 Germans get their news through social media. The “Tagesspiegel” took a closer look and discovered the conservatives post cows and horses; the SPD and Left show a lot of bags; Greens often wear red; and the Free Democrats love to share dog pictures. Pics and colours are linked to more serious issues amplifying the parties’ messages through multipliers.
Candidates and other officials turned into influencers for this year’s elections. Age does not matter as you will find 20-year olds as well as people in their seventies. They organised Instagram Live chats, launched Youtube channels and broadcasted cooking shows. The recipes vary and are only part of the full menu. The SPD spent less on social media than Conservatives, Greens and Liberals, but won nonetheless.
Some say it is because the Social Democrats promoted respect on billboards, had a competent candidate and resonated in Eastern Germany. Another explanation is their ambitious door-to-door canvassing that they pursued despite the pandemic. Olaf Scholz copied the approach that helped them in 2013 as well as Francois Hollande getting elected. The SPD called and invited interested people to join the “Sozenbande” and report back via Telegram. You did not have to be a member of the party and could decide when you wanted to participate. In contrast to the Left, the Social Democrats did not train their influencers but made it easy for newcomers as well as their 400,000 members to support them with step-by-step guides.
Three tips to improve your campaigns:
Negotiate in parallel with patience and in private.
Sketch key concepts and test if laypeople understand your plans.
Share exclusive material of your campaign via messaging apps.
- written by Benjamin Wilhelm, benjamin[at]thedandeliongroup.eu
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